Demographic Dividend & Economic Development in Easter and Central European Countries



The following paper discusses the occurrence of the demographic dividend in Eastern and Central European countries (ECE). The data used is extracted from the World Bank and provides with descriptive statistics in addition to empirical analyses of fertility and mortality rates, and the significant causal links between the change in the demographic composition and unemployment, economic development, expenditure, education, and female participation variables. This is throughout regression analysis process with robust standard error and Granger causality tests. Empirical findings indicate that both the fertility rates and mortality rates of infants have decreasing trends in these countries. Further analysis indicates that the demographic dividend already occurred in these countries and has ended except for Estonia, Hungary and Romania. The last part of the results indicates that the change of the demographic composition of the populations of ECE countries have causalities that differ from an economy to another.

MPRA Paper No. 83481, posted UNSPECIFIED

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By: Tahar Harkat, Ahmed Driouchi, IEAPS, Al Akhawayn University, Ifrane, Morocco.